:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0212Z from Region 2473 (S22E35). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (27 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
573 km/s at 24/2041Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/0434Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/0418Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4505 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 133
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  011/012-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20