:Product: 1225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
25/1729Z from Region 2472 (N03E23). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (26 Dec, 27 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (28 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
583 km/s at 25/0524Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1653Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/1942Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3732 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (26 Dec, 28 Dec)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 126
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  012/012-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/40