:Product: 1227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1910Z from Region 2472 (N04W02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 620 km/s at 27/0140Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/2154Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2106Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7792
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (29 Dec, 30 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Dec 110
Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        27 Dec 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  009/012-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25