:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/1032Z from Region 2473 (S21W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
29/0217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2334Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2023Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/0150Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2442 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 105
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  018/040-022/028-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/45/30
Minor Storm           35/30/15
Major-severe storm    50/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/15
Minor Storm           10/20/30
Major-severe storm    90/70/45