:Product: 1231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/2245Z from Region 2473 (S21W60). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (03 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 575 km/s at 31/0537Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1909Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 31/1915Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 883
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Jan) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    20/20/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 096
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  026/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  021/030-015/018-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           35/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    75/45/45