:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0948Z from Region 2473 (S21W73). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (02 Jan) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (03
Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 537 km/s at 01/0924Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 31/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 31/2105Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1465
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    20/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 098
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  025/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  014/018-014/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/40