:Product: 0103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan,
05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 533 km/s at
03/0524Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/0304Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0429Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 02/2105Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 6782 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(06 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     15/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 102
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  013/015-008/008-013/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/40
Minor Storm           10/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/60