:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1137Z from Region 2480 (N02E88). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08
Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 669 km/s at 06/1038Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 05/2219Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/2336Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2110
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 100
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/20