:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan,
12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at
10/0307Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2874 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 109
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 110/108/105
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  006/006-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/55/50