:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/2203Z from Region 2480 (N04W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jan,
18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
16/0407Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1425Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/0406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4799 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 100
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  006/005-007/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/45