:Product: 0117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (18 Jan, 19 Jan)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at
17/0554Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/0327Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2706 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 101
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  007/008-013/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/45/35