:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
400 km/s at 19/1047Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 18/2305Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 19/0911Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Jan, 22 Jan)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 098
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  009/010-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/25
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/35
Major-severe storm    40/25/30