:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0145Z from Region 2487 (S13E22). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan,
23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 547 km/s at 21/2031Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 21/0545Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 21/0352Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 104
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  023/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  011/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/20