:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
576 km/s at 22/0427Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1435Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0057Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2379 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 Jan, 25
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 101
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  015/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  008/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20