:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0455Z from Region 2488 (N04W01). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan,
26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
519 km/s at 24/1602Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1821Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1725Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12881 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26
Jan, 27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 104
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 105/108/108
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  012/015-011/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/40/25