:Product: 0126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1715Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and likely to be
low on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at
26/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1718Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 26/1142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 115
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 112/112/110
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  010/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20