:Product: 0127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/1330Z from Region 2489 (N10E27). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
391 km/s at 27/1253Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/0913Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1231Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Jan, 29 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 113
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 115/112/115
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  012/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25