:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Feb,
02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
307 km/s at 31/1823Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 31/2044Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 31/2030Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Feb, 02 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 101
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  008/008-008/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/40