:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0114Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb,
03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
366 km/s at 01/1005Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/2108Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 31/2108Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Feb, 04
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 100
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  009/008-012/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/25