:Product: 0205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0056Z from Region 2494 (S12W04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
517 km/s at 05/1225Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/0054Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0412Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 120
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  007/008-007/010-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40