:Product: 0206RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Feb 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0311Z from Region 2494 (S11W17). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 502 km/s at 06/0044Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 325 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Feb). III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Feb 117 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 108 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 007/010-015/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/40/40