:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1649Z from Region 2497 (N13W06). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
407 km/s at 10/2130Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/2057Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/2052Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (14 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 Feb)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (13
Feb, 14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     15/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 113
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 110/107/105
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  009/012-010/010-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/15