:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/2140Z from Region 2497 (N12W62). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and
expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on day three
(19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 669 km/s at 16/2022Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 16/1010Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 16/0847Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (19 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (17 Feb) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    30/30/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     15/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 104
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 100/095/090
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  027/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  017/022-014/014-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/30