:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
17/0501Z from Region 2497 (N13W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Feb) and expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (19 Feb, 20
Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 645 km/s at 17/0627Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/0001Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/0026Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4875
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    30/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 100
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  025/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  024/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  015/018-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/25