:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0508Z from old Region 2497 (N13, L=220). There are currently 3
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
636 km/s at 18/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1748Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2229Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36465 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 094
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10