:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/2310Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
592 km/s at 20/0805Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2108Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/0455Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15809 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 100
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15