:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 400 km/s at 23/0711Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
23/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6678 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 091
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  007/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20