:Product: 0224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1229Z from Region 2506 (S07E48). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 24/0734Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1937 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 088
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20