:Product: 0226RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Feb 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0951Z from Region 2506 (S07E22). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 26/1312Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 502 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb). III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Feb 089 Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 107 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15