:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Feb,
01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 415 km/s at 28/0509Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
28/0930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Mar) and unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 093
Predicted   29 Feb-02 Mar 095/105/110
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar  006/005-011/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/35/30
Major-severe storm    10/40/25