:Product: 0229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar,
02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 29/0115Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 472 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar), unsettled levels on
day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Feb 091
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        29 Feb 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  011/015-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           35/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/20