:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar,
03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 01/0719Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0423Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 554 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar,
03 Mar, 04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 097
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/25