:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar,
04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 02/1635Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 01/2322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 172 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar)
and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 098
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  007/008-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/40