:Product: 0304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/0900Z from Region 2506 (S06W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Mar,
06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0302Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/1710Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 220 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Mar, 07 Mar)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 101
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  011/012-018/022-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    40/50/40