:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar,
08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 06/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 06/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 06/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 706 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 096
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  014/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  017/022-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/20