:Product: 0307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Mar,
09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 07/1236Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 06/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 06/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 094
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  019/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20