:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1306Z from Region 2511 (N02W36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Mar,
10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 07/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 07/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3263 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 096
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20