:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/1250Z from Region 2519 (N06E76). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6761 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 097
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/25