:Product: 0311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Mar,
13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 11/1924Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-25 nT at 11/1150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 673 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 094
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  018/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  013/015-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20