:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar,
16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 14/1931Z. Total IMF reached 26
nT at 14/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at
14/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 093
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  022/032-021/028-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/70/55