:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0929Z from Region 2521 (N19W21). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Mar,
17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 15/0347Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 14/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 14/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 094
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  015/022-012/016-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/45/25