:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0646Z from Region 2522 (N14W85). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Mar,
18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s at 16/1354Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 16/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 16/2017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3690 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 091
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  012/014-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20