:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar,
19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 17/0805Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 16/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 16/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2338 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 092
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  014/014-008/008-007/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20