:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar,
21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 19/1728Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/0511Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/0552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 089
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25