:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0133Z from Region 2521 (N18W91). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1640 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 088
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 090/085/085
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  008/008-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/35