:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 22/0823Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/1235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1237 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 087
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/15/10