:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0354Z from Region 2524 (N15W16). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar,
25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 23/1948Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 932 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Mar, 25 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 087
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 085/085/090
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/20