:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar,
27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 24/2126Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 086
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 086/088/082
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  005/005-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/30/40