:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/2113Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
26/0312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Mar, 28 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 086
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  008/010-011/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/20