:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 27/0752Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 27/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
27/1541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 400 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 088
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 085/080/080
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  011/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/10